As the U.S. economy continues to remain volatile, JPMorgan Chase is warning that a recession is not off the table.
In an analyst note published Wednesday, economists at JPMorgan raised the odds of a recession this year from 25% to 35%, noting there’s also a 45% chance of a recession in the second half of 2025.
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“U.S. wage inflation is now slowing in a manner not seen in other DM [developed market] economies,” the note said. “Easing labor market conditions increase confidence both that service price inflation will move lower and that the Fed’s current policy stance is restrictive.”
The note also said the bank believes the odds of the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September and November 2024.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon doubled down on the prediction in an interview with CNBC, saying he thinks a recession could be looming.
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“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there. I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets,” he said. “I’m fully optimistic that if we have a mild recession, even a harder one, we would be okay.”
The bank’s predictions came after last week’s jobs report where the unemployment rate reached 4.1% in June.
It’s been a volatile week for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq due to heightened concerns about the U.S. economy.
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