Adobe just released its forecast for the 2024 U.S. holiday shopping season, predicting a record $240.8 billion in online sales from November 1 to December 31, an 8.4% increase compared to last year. Based on data from Adobe Analytics, which tracks over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories, the report provides one of the most comprehensive insights into e-commerce trends for the season.
E-commerce Surge Led by Mobile Shopping
The 2024 holiday season is expected to be the most mobile-driven yet, with $128.1 billion projected to be spent via mobile devices, representing a 53.2% share of online sales. This is a significant shift from desktop shopping, with mobile commerce growing 12.8% year-over-year (YoY).
Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to contribute $40.6 billion to the total holiday spend, with Cyber Monday set to remain the biggest shopping day of the year, bringing in a record $13.2 billion, up 6.1% YoY. However, Black Friday is forecast to grow faster, with sales reaching $10.8 billion (a 9.9% increase YoY), outpacing Cyber Monday’s growth. Thanksgiving Day will also see strong gains, with projected sales of $6.1 billion (up 8.7% YoY).
Deep Discounts to Drive Consumer Spending
Shoppers will be drawn to strong discounts, with price cuts reaching as high as 30% across major categories. Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 30% off, while TVs will see record high discounts of 24%. Sporting goods, apparel, and toys will also feature significant discounts, contributing to Adobe’s forecast of an additional $2 billion to $3 billion in incremental online spending driven by promotions.
Shoppers Trading Up Due to Discounts
After months of opting for lower-priced goods due to inflation, consumers are expected to “trade up” to more expensive products during the holiday season, driven by competitive discounts. The share of higher-priced goods sold is projected to rise by 19%, with significant increases in categories such as sporting goods (up 76%), electronics (up 58%), and appliances (up 40%).
Social Influencers and Generative AI Driving Consumer Behavior
Influencers are playing a growing role in consumer decision-making, with Adobe’s data showing that influencer-driven purchases are 10 times more effective than general social media marketing. During the 2024 holiday season, 37% of Gen Z respondents in Adobe’s survey said they have purchased a product based on an influencer’s recommendation.
Generative AI is also making a notable impact, with traffic to retail sites from AI-powered chatbots doubling in 2024. Shoppers are increasingly using generative AI for deal discovery, with 20% of respondents using it to find the best deals and 19% to locate specific items online.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Continues to Grow
BNPL is set to play a major role in this year’s holiday shopping, with $18.5 billion in online spend expected to be driven by the payment method, an 11.4% increase YoY. November alone will see $9.5 billion spent through BNPL, making it the largest month on record, with Cyber Monday projected to drive nearly $1 billion in BNPL transactions.
Top Categories and Products
Electronics, apparel, and furniture are expected to drive over half of the online holiday spend, with electronics alone contributing $55.1 billion, a 8.5% increase YoY. Other high-growth categories include toys ($8.1 billion, up 5.8% YoY) and sporting goods ($7.2 billion, up 5.5% YoY). Top sellers for the season are expected to include toys like LEGO sets and the Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, as well as electronics such as the iPhone 16 and Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra.
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